Spring 2026 Arizona Real Estate Update: Prices Up, Supply Tight, Buyers Return

Happy Spring!!!! (Though it has been feeling like winter oddly enough.)

Everything is happening, all over, all at once. (Great movie reference if I do say so myself. Haha) Click here to watch this month's video.

• Sales pricing performed better than anticipated and was up 1.7% from last month based on the monthly average sales price per square foot. (Sweet!)

• The monthly median sale price rose by $10,000, too. (Heck yeah!)

• However therate at which contracts are getting signatures is lower than we expected and much lower than normal. We are starting March with only 8,693 listings under contract, down 4.6% from this time last year. And last year was well below normal. (Ah crap!!!)

• It was the decline in supply that allowed us to scoff a year ago when Goldman Sachs published their ludicrous forecast that Arizona home prices would fall to 2008 levels in 2023. That certainly proved they had no idea what they were talking about. (This totally cracks me up!!!)

• Prices are now up 8.3% from this time last year.

• In certain outlying areas, we also have plenty of active listings. Examples include Casa Grande, Maricopa and Buckeye. But many cities that are closer to Phoenix and are dominated by homes under $1 millionstill have a tight supply and buyers outnumber sellers in most of these areas.

Are you considering buying or selling a home? Reply to this email or text me at 602-730-2143.

As anyone who knows a renter can confirm, APARTMENT RENTAL RATES have been going up by leaps and bounds for years. Click here for the article.

Even though rents of individual properties in MLS have been stagnant for a couple of years, apartment rents have continued increasing. The Arizona's Attorney General has started a lawsuit alleging price fixing.

Although this case is just in Arizona, chances are it is happening in other states as well. Why should homeowners care?

The Feds are deciding whether to raise, lower, or hold steady on interest rates in part due to the Consumer Price Index (CPI).A whopping 44.4% of the CPI is "shelter costs." Shelter costs are determined by telemarketers calling random homeowners and, for those who don't immediately hang up, are asked what they randomly are in the mood to say their home could rent for on the open market. smh!

(If I expressed just how much I can prove "shelter costs" to be complete BS, this newsletter would take a drastic change for the worse. Even property managers have to do price corrections sometimes and estimating rental rates is their full time job.I confidently feel in my bones that the typicalhomeowner absolutely doesn't have a creditable pulse on the rental market. AAAAARRRGGGHHHHH!!!!!)

There is still no sign of a market crash in the short or medium term, but the market is struggling to gain traction. The healthy amount of incoming supply is not quite matched by a small improvement in demand and the balance between sellers and buyers only favors sellers by a small amount when considering the market as a whole. In many sectors of the market,buyers have more negotiating room, even though, judging by the recent price movements, most of them do not seem to realize this.

Over the past year, the 30-year fixed mortgage interest rates havebounced from the peak of 7.79% on 10/26/2023 to the lowest point of 6.27% on 4/13/2023. Even though I confidently said last year that rates were expected to come down, I was wrong.What if the 6% range is here to stay?I suspect that a number of buyers are tired of waiting, exhausted of all the frustrations of renting, and that is why stats are showing them starting to wade back into the housing water though the waters are still choppy.

Although we all want rates to go down, rates are still very good when you look at the past 50+ years. To see what I mean, clickhere for Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey.

On the not so bright side for our northern neighbors,Canada's economy isn't doing as well as we are and rate reductions are expected shortly.They have a dramatic shortage of houses, just as we do, so they will lead the way in rates going down and how the housing market responds. Stay tuned.

A warm thank you to the Cromford Report, and Tina Tamborer, for her invaluable insights and data for this update.

I'm newly ramping back up on my LinkedIn account. Please follow me for more fascinating REAL ESTATE MARKET content.

When you hear a friend, family member, or co-work mention they are entertaining the idea of buying or selling a home,

pick up your phone call/text me immediately. Let's coordinate the best way for me to reach out and assist them.

Simply reply to this email or call/text me at 602-730-2143.

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Nancy Wittenberg