Phoenix Housing Market Update: Prices, Rates & Affordable Housing in Chandler

Changes for these newsletters coming in 2024:

1. Only one per month.

2. I am touching the political water with a tiny toe specifically for the subject of more Affordable Housing options for seniors and our workforce. Which basically means that I'll have a new section here for that content, too. My intention is to remain non-partisan and to just focus on housing solutions and what/who is in the way of that goal.

Hopefully, this will still fill everyone's needed to stay informed about the local real estate market while giving me time to devote towards my ever-growing community service activism.

Click here to watch this YouTube shortto see this short video to get the conversation started.

What are your thoughts on Affordable Housing and a 55+ community being built in Ocotillo/Chandler?

Please reply to this email. All thoughts are welcomed and will be respected.

Are home values up, down, or flat for most of the Phoenix Metro?

Yes.

If you aren't confused, then you haven't been watching the news (usually months old) or reading about the Case-Shiller Index (ALWAYS old as it is based on a 3-month moving average that is 2 months behind).

Watch this videofor real numbers on home prices, price per square foot, appreciation, and what is happening with buyer and seller demand. All of this in just a few minutes with animation and graphs to entertain you.

What is your HOME worth? Click here to find out!

I predict rates will continue to decline through December and that buyers will shake off the winter blankets to start jumping in cars towards the end of January. What do you think will happen? (Don't be shy. Reply and let me know what you think.)

• Interest rates continued to rise through October, peaking at an average just over 8% mid-month. WTH! Since then,mortgage rates have tumbled for 5 straight weeks.

• In theory this should have injected some life into housing demand, but there is precious little evidence of this in the numbers above.

• One reason for the severe lack of demand may be that home prices are noticeably higher than a year ago, something few people were predicting 12 months ago.

• The new home market continues to outperform the re-sale market. Mortgage rate buy-downs have kept new home demand at a healthy level.

To start your home-buying journey, click here!

Prices peaked last year in May 2022; hit the bottom in Dec 2022. Believe it or not, homes under 2500 sf have gone up in value for all of 2023.

• We have fewer homes under contract than last month and far fewer than a year ago, when we were all newly depressed about the low demand. Sales counts are down to an unusually low level of 4,616 in November. (YEAH, only 4,616 homes CLOSED in all of MARICOPA county last month. Take a moment for that to sink in. I can't or I'll lose what marbles I have left.)

• Supply has risen for several months but is now stable again. Few people list homes in December and some take their homes off the market for the holiday season. We anticipate more supply appearing in January, as it always does.

• December is always expected to be slow for new home buyers, so we anticipate the second half ofJanuary will tell us whether buyers see a big difference between mortgage rates around the mid-6% compared with low 8% ranges. (I bet we will!)

• The monthly avg sales price per sf data shows in Nov 2021 to 2022, there was a 1.1% increase in housing value. From Nov 2022 to Nov 2023, homes have appreciated 4.4%.

  • These single-digit percentages might not look sexy right now, but it will in a second. $500k home appreciating at 1.1% in 12 months is an increase of $5,500.Compare your net worthgoing up $5,500as a homeowner versus losing $24,000 per year for a $2k/month rental.

  • A $500,000 home that appreciated 4.4% in a year, is an increase of $22,000. Yeah, I'm passionate about homeownership adding to a person's net worth.

?For a FREE estimate of value, click here!

Will housing prices go up next year? What do you think will happen? "Inquiring minds want to know!"

• Over the past few months there were mixed market signals. The median sales price grew almost 1% but the average price per square foot dropped by over 2%. This followed a sharp increase the month before.

• When this happens it is usually caused by the luxury market. With much lower unit volumes, the luxury market can vary a lot month to month and the effect on the $/SF can be substantial. The luxury market has negligible effect on the median sales price. The median sales price tends to be strongly influenced by unit volumes at the low end.Despite the weak demand, supply is still below normal which is preventing prices from tumbling.

• Look at the above chart. I want to point out a few things.

  • Law of Supply vs Demand: When demand is more than supply, and there are no outside funky forces messing things up, prices go up.

  • This chart compares 2023, 2022, and 2021. Housing prices skyrocketed at unsustainable levels in 2022 & 2021 and you can see the sales transaction volumes. (2023 has been the roughest year with market insanity that I can remember since I got my business up and running.)

  • Do you think the number of buyers have left the area never to return or do you anticipate them coming out of the woodwork in 2024? I would be willing to bet $1, maximum bet I'll wager to keep this fun, that we will see 10%+ housing appreciation in 2024 if interest rates don't go any higher than 6.9%. Will you take that bet?

More Summary:

• The green in the chart above are the cities in a seller's market.

• Yellow are the cities with a balanced market.

• Blues are in buyer's markets.

• Every single city has seen a weakening of the market for sellers and a strengthening position for buyers over the past month.(Meaning negotiations on price and seller concessions are very much on the table right now for buyers.)

• It is reasonable to expect that this trend will continue for all of December.Most sellers and buyers don't want the added stress of moving around the Holidays.

• I've said this before, and I'll say this again.The best time to Buy a home is when Sellers are willing to negotiate and you plan to live in the home for at least 5 years.If this is YOU, reply asap and let's talk about options for your unique situation.

• If you remember last year, I saw the market changing and I wanted to upsize my home. I sold in June 2022, closed in July, I'm in a better neighborhood, larger home, and my interest rate is 4.99%. I bet my own "farm" on timing the market and I'm very happy. NOTE: Larger homes appreciate faster, which matters when another wave of buyers start bidding wars again.

If you would like to chat about down payment assistance, credit, home warranty options or if now is a good time to buy for your situation, please either reply to this email or call/text me at 602-730-2143.

Follow me on Threads, TikTok, Instagram, and Facebook at "NancyWittenbergRealEstate"

for all sorts of real estate content and some weird randomness thrown in for fun.

In fact, I've started doing different series specifically tailored to for Buyers, Sellers, and Renters, We'll cover topics such as negotiation techniques, home improvement, credit scores, escrow hurdles, market updates, recent news articles, and so much more.

Nancy Wittenberg